StooltimeCounseling's Blog

I originally posted this on July 1st, 2007, but it is worth re-reading today. The US economic transformation is especially interesting as we get close to electing our next president.

FOUR MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS
A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR THE THOUGHTFUL

By,
HERBERT MEYER

Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political,
economic and world events. These transformations have profound implications
for American business owners, our culture and our way of life.

1. The War in Iraq

There are three major monotheistic religions in the world: Christianity,
Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and Christianity reconciled
with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and scholars found a way to
settle up and pave the way forward. Religion remained at the center of life,
church and state became separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty,
individual rights, human rights - all these are defining points of modern
Western civilization. These concepts started with the Greeks but didn't take
off until the 15th and 16th century when Judaism and Christianity found a
way to reconcile with the modern world. When that happened, it unleashed the
scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of art, literature and
music the world has ever known.

Islam, which developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around
the world who are normal people. However, there is a radical streak within
Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization.
Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in
the 16th and 17th centuries. By 1683, the Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman
Empire) were literally at the gates of Vienna. It was in Vienna that the
climatic battle between Islam and Western civilization took place. The West
won and went forward. Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly, the date
of that battle was September 11. Since them, Islam has not found a way to
reconcile with the modern world.

Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization by radical
Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things. First, units of
our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world hunting down terrorist
groups and dealing with them. This gets very little publicity. Second we are
taking military action in Afghanistan and Iraq. These are covered
relentlessly by the media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is
right or wrong. However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use
our military to remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a
chance. Our hope is that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring
Islam forward into the 21st century. That's what our involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan is all about.

The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a small number of people
can kill a large number of people very quickly. They can use airplanes,
bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs. Even with a first-rate
intelligence service (which the U.S. does not have), you can't stop every
attack. That means our tolerance "for political horseplay" has dropped to
zero. No longer will we play games with terrorists or weapons of mass
destructions.

Most of the instability and horseplay is coming from the Middle East. That's
why we have thought that if we could knock out the radicals and give the
moderates a chance to hold power, they might find a way to reconcile Islam
with the modern world. So when looking at Afghanistan or Iraq, it's
important to look for any signs that they are modernizing. For example,
women being brought into the work force and colleges in Afghanistan is good.
The Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is good. People can argue about
what the U.S. is doing and how we're doing it, but anything that suggests
Islam is finding its way forward is good


2. The Emergence of China

In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and
villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the
next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to
find work for them. That's why China is addicted to manufacturing; they have
to put all the relocated people to work. When we decide to manufacture
something in the US., it's based on market needs and the opportunity to
make a profit. In China, they make the decision because they want the jobs,
which is a very different calculation.

While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to low
prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has developed
between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from China, they will
explode politically. If China stops selling to us, our economy will take a
huge hit because prices will jump. We are subsidizing their economic
development; they are subsidizing our economic growth.

Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is hungry for raw
materials, which drives prices up worldwide. China is also thirsty for oil,
which is one reason oil is now at $60 a barrel. By 2020, China will produce
more cars than the U.S. China is also buying its way into the oil
infrastructure around the world. They are doing it in the open market and
paying fair market prices, but millions of barrels of oil that would have
gone to the U.S. are now going to China. China's quest to assure it has the
oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics and
economics. We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically
the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long before the Chinese
have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well. The question
is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same direction as ours or
against us?

3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization

Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a
civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a steady
population requires a birth rate of 2.1. In Western Europe, the birth rate
currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there
will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current
birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that
rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which
has a huge impact on the economy.

When you don't have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to
import them. The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today,
the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is
rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem
populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host
countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany and France
don't support the Iraq war is they fear their Moslem populations will
explode on them. By 2020, more than half of all births in the Netherlands
will be non-European.

The huge design flaw in the post-modern secular state is that you need a
traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The Europeans simply
don't wish to have children, so they are dying.

In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60
million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very different
society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just
shutting down. Japan has already closed 2000 schools, and is closing them
down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020,
one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any
idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.

Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world's major economic engines,
aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This will have a huge
impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen. Why are
the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation between abandonment of
traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in
Europe is becoming irrelevant. The second reason is economic. When the birth
rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people
to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller
group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and
having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets
worse. These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held
in regards to having families and raising children.

The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase in
population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the Anglo
birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In
the U.S., the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers. This
will push the "elder dependency" ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15
years. This is not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of
trend.

Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive society
understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children are huge
consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That's how a society
works, but the post-modern secular state seems to have forgotten that. If
U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had been the same as post-World
War II, there would be no Social Security or Medicare problems.

The world's most effective birth control device is money. As society creates
a middle class and women move into the work force, birth rates drop. Having
large families is incompatible with middle class living. The quickest way to
drop the birth rate is through rapid economic development. After World War
II, the U.S instituted a $600 tax credit per child. The idea was to enable
mom and dad to have four children without being troubled by taxes. This led
to a baby boom of 22 million kids, which was a huge consumer market that
turned into a huge tax base. However, to match that incentive in today's
dollars would cost $12,000 per child.

China and India do not have declining populations. However, in both
countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have the
technology to know which is which before they are born. In China and India,
many families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of these
countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never find wives.
When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100 girls. In some
provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100 girls.

The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be
smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth's land surface
and much of its oil. You can't control that much area with such a small
population. Immediately to the south, you have China with 70 million
unmarried men - a real potential nightmare scenario for Russia.


4. Restructuring of American Business

The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of
American business. Today's business environment is very complex and
competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the
highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have
the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate
on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best.

A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel
makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the
modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center.
Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and
better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at
a lower cost. This is called a "fracturing" of business. When one company
can make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the
business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that
serve and support each other.

This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The
companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing-outsourcing many of
their core services and production process. As a result, they can make
cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger
and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does. Even very
small businesses can have a large pyramid of corporate entities that perform
many of its important functions. One aspect of this trend is that companies
end up with fewer employees and more independent contractors.

This trend has also created two new words in business.integrator and
complementor. At the top of the pyramid, IBM is the integrator. As you go
down the pyramid, Microsoft, Intel and the other companies that support IBM
are the complementors. However, each of the complementors is itself an
integrator for the complementors underneath it. This has several
implications, the first of which is that we are now getting false readings
on the economy. People who used to be employees are now independent
contractors launching their own businesses. There are many people working
whose work is not listed as a job. As a result, the economy is perking along
better than the numbers are telling us.

Outsourcing also confused the numbers. Suppose a company like General Motors
decides to outsource all its employee cafeteria functions to Marriott (which
it did). It lays off hundreds of cafeteria workers, who then get hired right
back by Marriott. The only thing that has changed is that these people work
for Marriott rather than GM. Yet, the headlines will scream that America has
lost more manufacturing jobs. All that really happened is that these workers
are now reclassified as service workers. So the old way of counting jobs
contributes to false economic readings. As yet, we haven't figured out how
to make the numbers catch up with the changing realities of the business
world.

Another implication of this massive restructuring is that because companies
are getting rid of units and people that used to work for them, the entity
is smaller. As the companies+ get smaller and more efficient, revenues are
going down but profits are going up. As a result, the old notion that
"revenues are up and we're doing great" isn't always the case anymore.
Companies are getting smaller but are becoming more efficient and profitable
in the process.


IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOUR TRANSFORMATIONS

1. The War in Iraq

In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan and Iraq have the
beginnings of a modern government, which is a huge step forward. The Saudis
are starting to talk about some good things, while Egypt and Lebanon are
beginning to move in a good direction.

A series of revolutions have taken place in countries like Ukraine and
Georgia. There will be more of these revolutions for an interesting reason.
In every revolution, there comes a point where the dictator turns to the
general and says, "Fire into the crowd." If the general fires into the
crowd, it stops the revolution. If the general says "No," the revolution is
over. Increasingly, the generals are saying "No" because their kids are in
the crowd.

Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old outside the U.S. is
very savvy about what is going on in the world, especially in terms of
popular culture. There is a huge global consciousness, and young people
around the world want to be a part of it. It is increasingly apparent to
them that the miserable government where they live is the only thing
standing in their way. More and more, it is the well-educated kids, the
children of the generals and the elite, who are leading the revolutions.

At the same time, not all is well with the war. The level of violence in
Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be improving. It's possible that
we're asking too much of Islam all at one time. We're trying to jolt them
from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further
than they can go. They might make it and they might not. Nobody knows for
sure. The point is, we don't know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says
they know is just guessing.

The real place to watch is Iran. If they actually obtain nuclear weapons it
will be a terrible situation. There are two ways to deal with it. The first
is a military strike, which will be very difficult. The Iranians have
dispersed their nuclear development facilities and put them underground. The
U.S. has nuclear weapons that can go under the earth and take out those
facilities, but we don't want to do that. The other way is to separate the
radical mullahs from the government, which is the most likely course of
action.

Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but
not Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many experts think the U.S. should
have dealt with Iran before going to war with Iraq. The problem isn't so
much the weapons, it's the people who control them. If Iran has a moderate
government, the weapons become less of a concern.

We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq We could lose or win. What
we're looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st
century and stabilizing

2. China

It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into
cities is too much too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is
experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is
unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average
citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and
polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe.

The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They may be able to pull it
off and become a very successful economic and military superpower. If so, we
will have to learn to live with it. If they want to share the responsibility
of keeping the world's oil lanes open, that's a good thing. They currently
have eight new nuclear electric power generators under way and 45 on the
books to build. Soon, they will leave the US. way behind in their ability
to generate nuclear power.

What can go wrong with China? For one, you can't move 550 million people
into the cities without major problems. Two, China really wants Taiwan, not
so much for economic reasons, they just want it. The Chinese know that their
system of communism can't survive much longer in the 21st century. The last
thing they want to do before they morph into some sort of more capitalistic
government is to take over Taiwan.

We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan.
If so, it will be a mess, both economically and militarily. The U.S. has
committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will
we really go to war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer
is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan, every treaty the U.S. has
will be worthless. Hopefully, China won't do anything stupid.

3. Demographics

Europe and Japan are dying because their populations are aging and
shrinking. These trends can be reversed if the young people start breeding.
However, the birth rates in these areas are so low it will take two
generations to turn things around. No economic model exists that permits 50
years to turn things around. Some countries are beginning to offer
incentives for people to have bigger families. For example, Italy is
offering tax breaks for having children. However, it's a lifestyle issue
versus a tiny amount of money. Europeans aren't willing to give up their
comfortable lifestyles in order to have more children.

In general, everyone in Europe just wants it to last a while longer.
Europeans have a real talent for living. They don't want to work very hard.
The average European worker gets 400 more hours of vacation time per year
than Americans. They don't want to work and they don't want to make any of
the changes needed to revive their economies.

The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a heat wave. In August,
the country basically shuts down when everyone goes on vacation. That year,
a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly people living in nursing homes
and hospitals died. Their children didn't even leave the beaches to come
back and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to scramble to find
enough refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people came to claim
them.

This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in America, yet it didn't
trigger any change in French society. When birth rates are so low, it
creates a tremendous tax burden on the young. Under those circumstances,
keeping mom and dad alive is not an attractive option. That's why euthanasia
is becoming so popular in most European countries. The only country that
doesn't permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany, because of all
the baggage from World War II.

The European economy is beginning to fracture. The Euro is down. Countries
like Italy are starting to talk about pulling out of the European Union
because it is killing them. When things get bad economically in Europe, they
tend to get very nasty politically. The canary in the mine is anti-
Semitism. When it goes up, it means trouble is coming. Current levels of
anti-Semitism are higher than ever. Germany won't launch another war, but
Europe will likely get shabbier, more dangerous and less pleasant to live
in.

Japan has a birth rate of 1.3 and has no intention of bringing in
immigrants. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be 70 years old.
Property values in Japan have dropped every year for the past 14 years. The
country is simply shutting down.

In the U.S. we also have an aging population. Boomers are starting to retire
at a massive rate. These retirements will have several major impacts:

. Possible massive sell-off of large four-bedroom houses and a movement to
condos.

. An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers vote, and they want their
benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to
get them. Social Security will be a huge problem. As this generation ages,
it will start to drain the system. We are the only country in the world
where there are no age limits on medical procedures.

. An enormous drain on the health care system. This will also increase the
tax burden on the young, which will cause them to delay marriage and having
families, which will drive down the birth rate even further.

Although scary, these demographics also present enormous opportunities for
products and services tailored to aging populations. There will be
tremendous demand for caring for older people, especially those who don't
need nursing homes but need some level of care. Some people will have a
business where they take care of three or four people in their homes. The
demand for that type of service and for products to physically care for
aging people will be huge.

Make sure the demographics of your business are attuned to where the action
is. For example, you don't want to be a baby food company in Europe or
Japan. Demographics are much underrated as an indicator of where the
opportunities are. Businesses need customers. Go where the customers are.

4. Restructuring of American Business

The restructuring of American business means we are coming to the end of the
age of the employer and employee. With all this fracturing of businesses
into different and smaller units, employers can't guarantee jobs anymore
because they don't know what their companies will look like next year.
Everyone is on their way to becoming an independent contractor. The new
workforce contract will be, "Show up at the my office five days a week and
do what I want you to do, but you handle your own insurance, benefits,
health care and everything else."

Husbands and wives are becoming economic units. They take different jobs and
work different shifts depending on where they are in their careers and
families. They make tradeoffs to put together a compensation package to take
care of the family. This used to happen only with highly educated
professionals with high incomes. Now it is happening at the level of the
factory floor worker. Couples at all levels are designing their compensation
packages based on their individual needs The only way this can work is if
everything is portable and flexible, which requires a huge shift in the
American economy.

The U.S. is in the process of building the world's first 21st century model
economy. The only other countries doing this are U.K. and Australia. The
model is fast, flexible, highly productive and unstable in that it is always
fracturing and re-fracturing. This will increase the economic gap between
the U.S. and everybody else, especially Europe and Japan.

At the same time, the military gap is increasing. Other than China, we are
the only country that is continuing to put money into their military. Plus,
we are the only military getting on-the-ground military experience through
our war in Iraq. We know which high-tech weapons are working and which ones
aren't. There is almost no one who can take us on economically or
militarily. There has never been a superpower in this position before.

On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious
people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts
of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the
world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the best
place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace. We
take it for granted, but it isn't as available in other countries of the
world.

Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are
ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture,
we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If
we lose it, there isn't another America to pull us out.


Retired Admiral HERBERT MEYER

Herb Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to
the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National
Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the US.
National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the
President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with
being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet
Union's collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National
Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's
highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the
author of several books.

These transformations have profound implications for
American business owners, our culture and our way of life.

For the past couple months, Shock Hazard and I have tried to get fellow bloggers together for a meet and greet. Here is another opportunity for that to happen:

Fox 2 Detroit bloggers are invited to meet and greet each other on Monday, October 13th, 2008 at 10:00am at Dimitri's Family restaurant on Gratiot just south of 23 mile road in Chesterfield.

• Join us for some laughs.
• Bring your lap top so some serious Fox 2 Detroit blogging can happen then and there. Hey, maybe we can do one, big group post. There should be enough creativity in the room, given our diverse views and perspectives. 
• Watch as Shock uses his "hunt and peck" technique while typing.
• See my new Detroit Lions banner that will make an appearance on ESPN and Fox Sports on game day, 10-26-08, when the Detroit Lions compete against the Washington Redskins. This banner is awesome, professionally done and has an amazing, thought evoking, eye-catching new slogan that will replace, "Restore The Roar". The new slogan captures the current mood of Lions fans, while the art work captivates the imagination. [To give you an idea of the banner's popularity, I've had numerous people use their cell phone cameras to take a picture of it, while others reported they would buy T-shirts if they become available. Thanks to Sign-A-Rama for a job well done on the banner!]
• See how many waitresses you can find who have blue eyes.
• Plenty of coffee or tea or whatever pleases your taste buds.
• Good company!

Hope to see you there! Shock and I promise to be gracious hosts.

-STC. 

• Los Angeles, CA.
• San Diego, CA.
• San Francisco, CA.
• Seattle, WA.

For which one of these cities would you vote to host The Statue Of Responsibility?

You do have a say in the matter. Go to the following link to vote:

The Statue Of Responsibility Foundation

As you can read from my bio, I sit on two different steering committees with the Statue Of Responsibility Foundation. Our grass roots effort is picking up steam to build the monument that will bookend the Statue Of Liberty. Please cast your vote by going to the Foundation's website. You will find the link to vote on the left side of the home page. Your vote matters!

Thank you!

Mark Rogers.

Liberty + Responsibility = Our Freedom

To be a victim of a crime is a painful experience, whether it be a crime against property or person. The purpose of this post is to help readers decrease their chances of becoming a victim. There are never any guarantees in life, so the information can only be used as guidelines to increase one's safety and security in a world where the criminal element (enemy) has the desire (to hurt, bully), opportunity (a car or purse to steal) and ability (overpower, intimidate, use of technology or weapons) to inflict harm on innocent, law-abiding citizens.

I want to thank the West Bloomfield police department for having two of their finest men present this information to Easter Seals staff at an inservice entitled, "Service Provider Safety And Security". Thank you, Sgt. Tom Keilman and Officer Rick Trabulsy. I appreciate getting your permission to write this blog post on the Fox 2 website.

What follows is what I learned about personal safety and security as well as some interesting links to self-defense laws, requirements to obtain a concealed pistol permit, pistol free areas and laws against carrying under the influence.

VICTIMIZATION OVERVIEW:

• The offender has a plan. It includes the desire, opportunity and ability to commit a crime.
• The desire is connected to the criminal's observations of potential victims. No matter where we go, criminals are observing their potential victims. It could be at the grocery store, where 90% of the shoppers are female, who carry purses. It could be the garbage man or mail man, who can sell our personal information to criminals.
• The opportunity is related to the criminal making contact with the victim. Approach tactics are used to get close to an intended victim.
• The stranger approach happens in a moment. The victim does not know the criminal in this scenario. Purse snatchings, muggings or car jackings are some examples. 
• The casual approach takes time to develop. This could be the "nice" man who meets an unsuspecting female victim on-line, develops her trust by wining and dining her and then robs her blind by stealing her credit cards or something similar.
• The family approach is related to situations concerning domestic violence. Abuse or neglect of any kind underscores the family approach of the criminal.
• The ability to commit a crime is connected to the actual confrontation with the victim. To stop the criminal from getting to this part of their plan, a potential victim needs to eliminate the criminal's opportunity. Whoever has the best plan, wins.

DEVELOPING A TACTICAL PRESENTATION:

• The best defense is a good offense.
• Be aware of your surroundings.
• Dress to win.
• Implement assertive body language by walking with a purpose and making eye contact with strangers. For example, when store employees greet and make eye contact with customers upon entering the store, retail fraud is decreased. 
• Think two or three steps ahead at all times so the criminal has less of an opportunity to use the element of surprise.
• Have an inventory of aggressive verbal responses if confronted by a criminal. Yell to draw attention. Use simple words like, "Stop", "Fire", "Get back", "No" or "911". Avoid using the word, "Rape", because bystanders could turn a deaf ear for fear of getting involved in something that doesn't concern them.
• Trust your intuition or 6th sense when out in public. A denial of potential danger is the greatest enemy of intuition. Be aware!
• Train to win or have a positive view of escaping potential danger. Have a plan and practice it. Visualize yourself winning against the criminal. Evaluate/adapt your plan as needed.
• Another key to safety is to take someone with you when going out in public like the shopping mall.

ENEMIES OF THE CRIMINAL:

• Extended time: A criminal wants to do a crime fast. Locking your doors (car, home) and having an alarm system extends the time needed to commit a crime. This doesn't mean the criminal stops being a criminal. Crime prevention is a fallacy. However, by extending the time needed to commit a crime, the crime is moved somewhere else because the criminal then looks for the opportunity to commit a crime elsewhere.
• Light: From dusk to dawn, have some kind of lighting turned on in your home. Avoid walking in dark areas on the street. 
• Noise: Alarms, horns, whistles and yelling all draw attention to the criminal. Drawing attention is something the criminal does not want during the commission of a crime.

DEFENSIVE TACTICS, STRATEGIES AND SKILLS:

• The goal of a potential victim is to ESCAPE a dangerous situation.
• It is a personal choice to use a counter attack to defend yourself or not defend yourself, based on the circumstances. You must have confidence in yourself and your abilities if you choose the former.
• To repeat, the goal is to get away, to escape. If you choose to defend yourself, your counter attack must be quick and vicious.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER IF YOU ARE ASSAULTED:

• The assailant is probably stronger than you and may have a weapon.
• The assailant has the advantage of surprise.
• The assailant has picked the time and location of the attack.
• The attacker will intimidate with threats of injury or other consequences.
• Your fear may paralyze your thinking and response.
• If your attacker is armed with a weapon DO NOT resist, but if it is your life, do what is necessary.
• If you are confronted by multiple assailants, resist only if absolutely necessary.
• If an attacker is after property, give it up! Resisting may make the encounter escalate.
• Avoid being taken to a second crime scene/location.

ESCAPE CONSIDERATIONS AND TACTICS:

• Run to safety, not away from danger.
• Do not hesitate when it comes to escaping.
• Get objects (like a car) or noise (blow a whistle, yelling, car horn) between you and the assailant. Do whatever is necessary to draw attention to yourself.
• Hide only if your general location is unknown, there are numerous available options or help is not near.
• Keep thinking ahead. Re-evaluate your plan as needed.
• Your best weapons are your awareness and a good tactical presentation.

Self-Defense Law

Requirements To Obtain A Concealed Pistol Permit

Pistol Free Areas

Carrying Under The Influence

If you are able to learn self-defense skills (martial arts, contacting your local police department to inquire about local places that teach this training, other) by all means, get the training. Learning and practicing self-defense skills helps improve your confidence so you can develop a plan to help you escape from dangerous situations.

Be safe!

What it took to get an 8th grade education in 1895... Remember when grandparents and great-grandparents stated that they only had an 8th grade education? Well, check this out. Could any of us have passed the 8th grade in 1895?

This is the eighth-grade final exam from 1895 in Salina , Kansas , USA . It was taken from the original document on file at the Smokey Valley Genealogical Society and Library in Salina , and reprinted by the Salina Journal. 8th Grade Final Exam: Salina, KS - 1895

Grammar (Time, one hour)

1. Give nine rules for the use of capital letters.

2. Name the parts of speech and define those that have no modifications.

3. Define verse, stanza and paragraph

4. What are the principal parts of a verb? Give principal parts of 'lie,''play,' and 'run.'

5. Define case; illustrate each case.

6 What is punctuation? Give rules for principal marks of punctuation.

7 - 10. Write a composition of about 150 words and show therein that you understand the practical use of the rules of grammar.

Arithmetic (Time,1 hour 15 minutes)

1. Name and define the Fundamental Rules of Arithmetic.

2. A wagon box is 2 ft. Deep, 10 feet long, and 3 ft. Wide. How many bushels of wheat will it hold?

3. If a load of wheat weighs 3,942 lbs., what is it worth at 50cts/bushel, deducting 1,050 lbs. For tare?

4. District No 33 has a valuation of $35,000. What is the necessary levy to carry on a school seven months at $50 per month, and have $104 for incidentals?

5. Find the cost of 6,720 lbs. Coal at $6.00 per ton.

6. Find the interest of $512.60 for 8 months and 18 days at 7 percent.

7. What is the cost of 40 boards 12 inches wide and 16 ft. Long at $20 per metre?

8. Find bank discount on $300 for 90 days (no grace) at 10 percent.

9. What is the cost of a square farm at $15 per acre, the distance of which is 640 rods?

10. Write a Bank Check, a Promissory Note, and a Receipt

U.S. History (Time, 45 minutes)

1. Give the epochs into which U.S. History is divided

2. Give an account of the discovery of America by Columbus

3. Relate the causes and results of the Revolutionary War.

4. Show the territorial growth of the United States

5. Tell what you can of the history of Kansas

6. Describe three of the most prominent battles of the Rebellion.

7. Who were the following: Morse, Whitney, Fulton , Bell , Lincoln , Penn, and Howe?

8. Name events connected with the following dates: 1607, 1620, 1800, 1849, 1865.

Orthography (Time, one hour) [Do we even know what this is??]

1. What is meant by the following: alphabet, phonetic, orthography, etymology,

2. What are elementary sounds? How classified?

3. What are the following, and give examples of each: trigraph, subvocals, diphthong, cognate letters, linguals

4. Give four substitutes for caret 'u.' (HUH?)

5. Give two rules for spelling words with final 'e.' Name two exceptions under each rule.

6. Give two uses of silent letters in spelling. Illustrate each.

7. Define the following prefixes and use in connection with a word: bi, dis-mis, pre, semi, post, non, inter, mono, sup.

8. Mark diacritically and divide into syllables the following, and name the sign that indicates the sound: card, ball, mercy, sir, odd, cell, rise, blood, fare, last.

9. Use the following correctly in sentences: cite, site, sight, fane, fain, feign, vane , vain, vein, raze, raise, rays.

10. Write 10 words frequently mispronounced and indicate pronunciation by use of diacritical marks and by syllabication.

Geography (Time, one hour)

1. What is climate? Upon what does climate depend?

2. How do you account for the extremes of climate in Kansas ?

3. Of what use are rivers? Of what use is the ocean?

4. Describe the mountains of North America

5. Name and describe the following: Monrovia , Odessa , Denver , Manitoba , Hecla , Yukon , St. Helena, Juan Fernandez, Aspinwall and Orinoco .

6. Name and locate the principal trade centers of the U.S.

7. Name all the republics of Europe and give the capital of each.

8. Why is the Atlantic Coast colder than the Pacific in the same latitude?

9. Describe the process by which the water of the ocean returns to the sources of rivers.

10. Describe the movements of the earth. Give the inclination of the earth.

Notice that the exam took FIVE HOURS to complete. Gives the saying 'he only had an 8th grade education' a whole new meaning, doesn't it?! -------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------

Believe it or not!

Financial expert, Dave Ramsey, had an interesting, but jokingly sarcastic, take on the price for a gallon of gasoline vs. water vs. coffee.

Currently, a gallon of gasoline costs about $4.00 a gallon. Water goes for $1.00 a bottle. That translates to $16.00 a gallon for bottled water. Some would argue that we need both. Try driving a car without gasoline. Try living more than a few days without water.

A specialty cup of coffee at Starbucks goes for about $5.00. That translates to over $50.00 a gallon for coffee. It's safe to say the human body does not need coffee like it does water.

Maybe we should go after Big Water and Big Coffee after we go after Big Oil.

In the end, we all make choices. We have to ask ourselves if the choices we make cause us to panic?

Choose to conserve (gasoline) in ways that work and mean something to you. It just may lessen the panic factor. The choices we make as consumers drive the free market as well.

It's getting more and more expensive to buy food. The basics like bread, milk and eggs cost a lot more than last year. Places like Costco and Sams Club recently began to ration rice due to a global shortage. Those are some obvious differences from a year ago. What about the subtle changes going on?

The top two that come to mind for me are Breyer's ice cream and a Wendy's Junior Bacon cheeseburger.

Has anybody else noticed that the price for Breyer's ice cream has remained the same, but the quantity of ice cream in the carton has gone down? What was once in a 1.75 quart container is now in a 1.5 quart container. Same price, less volume.

When Wendy's restaurant introduced their 99 cent sandwiches, the junior bacon cheeseburger was one of them. It originally had one hamburger, a slice of cheese, two pieces of bacon, lettuce, tomato, mayo and a bun. After some years of success, this sandwich increased in price to $1.29, but wasn't selling as well as when it cost 99 cents. Wendy's then decided to move it back to their new $1.00 menu, but took off one of the pieces of bacon. Recently, I've noticed the same sandwich is still priced at one dollar, but looks a lot smaller. I suppose Wendy's changed the definition of the word, "junior".

I might get some comments about my once-in-awhile diet, but my point is more about what some companies are doing to compensate for their economic losses during this very challenging time in our economy.

Any other examples?

A man died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the pearly gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him. He asked, "Why are all those clocks here"?

St. Peter answered, "Those are lie-clocks. Everyone on earth has a lie clock. Every time you lie, the hands on your clock move".

"Oh", replied the man, "Very interesting ... whose clock is that"?

"That's Mother Teresa's clock", answered St. Peter. "The hands have never moved, indicating that she has never told a lie".

"Incredible"! exclaimed the man. "And whose clock is that one"?

St. Peter responded, "That's Abraham Lincoln's clock. The hands have moved only twice, telling us that Abe has told only two lies in his entire life".

"Where's Kwame Kilpatrick's clock"? asked the man.

"Kwame's clock is in Jesus' office. He's using it as a ceiling fan", answered St. Peter.

I decided to write this post under the NEWS heading, but it very well could've fit under the POLITICAL or SPORTS headings, too.

What's the similarity between Kwame and a hockey player, who gets a penalty called against him during a game?

In both instances, an objective observer sees and hears Kwame and the hockey player deny the infraction and say with shrugged shoulders, arms extended out and palms facing upward, "Who, me? I didn't do anything. What are you talking about"?

What's the difference between the two?

The hockey player immediately goes to the sin-bin for at least 2 minutes to pay for the infraction, whereas, Kwame is innocent until proven guilty and is able to carry out the business for the city of Detroit.

What a country! 

It's difficult to understand a problem when there are so many causes. Cancer is one such problem, but then so is crime. This doesn't mean we as a society should give up or quit trying to understand crime and criminal behavior. Understanding a problem is one of the steps in doing something about it. I am not a forensic expert, nor am I versed in the study of criminal justice. What I want to offer in this post is my opinion as an ordinary citizen, who worries about the perception that more and more of the world is becoming lawless and violent.

I read about violent crime in the paper, hear horrific stories on the radio news and see disgusting examples of predatory human behavior gone awry on the TV every day. It is pathetic how some people treat others. Murders, rapes, school shootings, domestic violence and the list goes on. If it bleeds, it leads. Sometimes I just scratch my head and ask myself, "Is the nature of man basically evil or is it something else"? I don't pretend to have the answers, but I do have some insights, based on what I've heard other people say and write. What are some of the causes of crime?

• The absence of God in school. If this were true, it could imply that non-believers are automatically lawless people. That would be ridiculous.
• Mental illness. I believe that there are more mentally ill people who are victims of crime than there are mentally ill people who commit crimes. This is not a fair example of a scapegoat to explain the crime rate.
• Cities asking for federal funding. Does the reported crime rate go up when a city needs more money to pay for police protection? How does this happen?
• The Great Society and War On Poverty. This one doesn't explain white collar crime or corruption in the political arena. Criminal behavior shows no preference to socio-economic status. 
• The media's role. Has the crime rate in society always been the same, but because we live in the age of information, we know about it more than we did 100 years ago?
• Social Engineers. How important is it to instill fear in our youth so that they can learn to tell the difference between right and wrong? Social Engineers say it is abusive to use corporal punishment in school and at home, that it teaches kids to be violent. Other people say sparing the rod spoils the child.
• Parents role. Some people blame the parents for having out-of-control kids. I will say that parenting is a skill that does not require a license. How many kids join gangs because there is no positive validation and acknowledgement at home?
• Personality Disorders. This group of people can be very anti-social. Anti-social types have no empathy for their fellow man. Some report an inability to feel any emotions. When asked, "Why did you commit that crime"?, a typical response might be, "Because I can". Medication does not help improve the prognosis.
• Illicit Drugs. Some people call drug use a "victimless" crime, and that if society legalized illicit drugs, the jails would have room to house truly violent criminals. They might be the same people who've never gone face-to-face with a crack head, who would do anything to get another rock.
• Prescribed Medication. The mainstream medical community needs to be acutely aware of this one. Risks and benefits of all medications need to be explained to people before they are prescribed and dispensed. It is the responsibility of the doctor to monitor the effectiveness or lack thereof of any prescribed medication. It the responsibility of the person receiving the medication to report any side effects to their doctor.
• Access to guns or other weapons. Having access to guns is protected by the constitution and is legal if the person has a permit to carry one and has no history of a mental illness or a felony. Even though guns scare the crap out of me, I would feel safer in a room with someone who is law abiding and packing heat than with someone who isn't a law abiding citizen.
• The Economy. Some people think that a lack of jobs can cause even honest people to act dishonestly. Whose responsibility is it to have marketable skills in order to compete in the job market?
• Other. Now it's your turn to post what you believe to be a cause of an apparent rising crime rate in society.

I've heard both sides of the fence: 1) Kwame can do no wrong, and 2) He cheated, he lied, he cost the taxpayers $9 million, he needs to resign and go to jail for 15 years.

People from the first camp put Kwame on a pedestal. He's their man, no matter what he says or does.  Sometimes professionals act less than professional. We can forgive him for those times when "less" was more.

People from the second camp are like witch hunters. While it is true that we are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law, many believe it doesn't apply to politicians.

I say, let this thing play out in court. In the meantime, if I were Kwame, it would suck to be me.

• 750.29 Adultery; definition. Sec. 29.

  Definition - Adultery is the sexual intercourse of 2 persons, either of whom is married to a third person.

• 750.30 Adultery; punishment. Sec. 30.

  Punishment - Any person who shall commit adultery shall be guilty of a felony; and when the crime is committed between a married woman and a man who is unmarried, the man shall be guilty of adultery, and liable to the same punishment.

• 750.31 Adultery; complaint and time of prosecution. Sec. 31.

  Complainant and time prosecution to be commenced - No prosecution for adultery, under the preceding section, shall be commenced, but on the complaint of the husband or wife; and no such prosecution shall be commenced after 1 year from the time of committing the offense.

• 750.32 Adultery; cohabitation of divorced parties. Sec. 32.

  Cohabitation by divorced parties - If any persons after being divorced from the bonds of matrimony for any cause whatever, shall cohabit together, they shall be liable to all the penalties provided by law against adultery.

The above information is NOT legal advice and does not constitute a legal opinion.

Here's my opinion:

The stigma of adultery in 2008 is a lot like the stigma of drunk driving before the inception of MADD mothers.  There is very little stigma attached to it.

Before MADD advocated for stronger penalties for drunk driving, circa 1970's, people who got caught either got a slap on the wrist or the police did not even bother to arrest you.

Before the early 1980's, it was common for police to pull you over if you showed signs of drunk driving; however, what followed back then is very different from what happens today. Back then, it was common for the police to pour out your alcohol (if you were stupid enough to actually be drinking it while driving) and send you home. Even if you did go to court, your lawyer would probably advise a jury trial. The jury trial was a recommendation back then because, chances are, 10/12 jury members drink and drive, too. There would be sympathy and empathy for you. At least that's what your lawyer would tell you. 

Fast forward to the year 2008: No more breaks if you're busted for drunk driving. There is more of a stigma attached to it. Even though the stigma hasn't stopped everybody from doing it, if caught, you will be prosecuted.

The parallel between the drunk driving stigma and adultery stigma goes like this: I believe the adultery stigma in 2008 is similar to the drunk driving stigma before MADD mothers started doing their thing a few decades ago.

The law against adultery, referenced at the outset of this post, is not enforced probably because the act is so common. At least that's what I'm gathering when I listen to talk radio. Even if adultery is common, does that make it any less serious? I think not.

Some people call adultery a sin. It is certainly a betrayal of trust. Psychologically, the underlying motivation to commit adultery is to seek a thrill. Seeking a thrill can get a person in trouble if the behavior is illegal or immoral. That's why it's a thrill. The person doesn't intend to get caught. I submit there are legal and moral ways to seek a thrill.

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the act of adultery to become more of a stigma by society. It took MADD mothers, and eventually the courts, to stigmatize drunk driving. Besides the church, who will step-up on this one?

The word at the office is that the price of the Chevy Malibu is going up.

Word is that if a consumer wants to buy a Chevy Malibu right now, the consumer has to settle for what dealerships have on their lots, but the price is fairly reasonable. Right now, a consumer does not have the option to special order one because GM wants to clear out their current inventory before building some new ones. What you see on the lots is what you get for right now.

Fast forward to the day when GM's present inventory of the Malibu is gone and consumers can begin special ordering them because production will be re-started. BAM! The price of the Malibu goes up.

The Chevy Malibu is a sweet car! Consumers and GM both know it. What I also know is that if the price goes up too much, I'll (FORD) Focus my money elsewhere later this year. Word.    

Share Your Time
--Author Unknown  

A man came home from work late again, tired and irritated,
to find his 5 year old son waiting for him at the door. "Daddy,
may I ask you a question?" "Yeah, sure, what is it?" replied
the man.  

 "Daddy, how much money do you make an hour? "That's none
of your business! What makes you ask such a thing?" the man
said angrily.   "I just want to know. Please tell me, how much do you make
an hour?" pleaded the little boy.

 "If you must know, I make $20.00 an hour." "Oh," the little boy replied, head bowed. Looking up, he said, "Daddy, may I borrow $10.00 please?"  

The father was furious. "If the only reason you wanted to know how much money I make is just so you can borrow some to buy a silly toy or some other nonsense, then
you march yourself straight to your room and go to bed. Think about why you're being so selfish. I work long, hard hours everyday and don't have time for such childish games."

The little boy quietly went to his room and shut the door.   The man sat down and started to get even madder about the little boy's questioning. How dare him ask such questions
only to get some money.  

After an hour or so, the man had calmed down, and started to think he may have been a little hard on his son. Maybe there was something he really needed to buy with that $10.00, and he really didn't ask for money very often.  

The man went to the door of the little boy's room and opened the door. "Are you asleep son?" he asked. "No daddy, I'm awake," replied the boy.  

"I've been thinking, maybe I was too hard on you earlier," said the man. "It's been a long day and I took my aggravation out on you. Here's that $10.00 you asked for."   The little boy sat straight up, beaming. "Oh, thank you daddy!" he yelled. Then, reaching under his pillow, he pulled out some more crumpled up bills.  

The man, seeing that the boy already had money, started to get angry again. The little boy slowly counted out his money, then looked up at the man.  

"Why did you want more money if you already had some?" the father grumbled. "Because I didn't have enough, but now I do," the little boy replied.  

"Daddy, I have $20.00 now. Can I buy an hour of your time?"   

* Our time is the most precious gift we can give one another.