Paul_Yates's Blog

The debates are on. FOX 5 extended debate invitations to the 5 Democrats who would like to replace Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate. All of the Democrats went before our cameras. The result was a sometimes lively exchange that, hopefully, enlightened the electorate.

The Atlanta Press Club staged its own debate in the 5th District race. Incumbent Democratic Congressmann John Lewis declined the invitation. Rev. Markel Hutchins and state Rep. "Able" Mable Thomas accepted. The event, aired by Georgia Public Broadcasting, featured an empty podium where Rep. Lewis would have stood.

Dodging debates is a hardheaded, time-honored practice for politicians who think their standing in the polls will eclipse negative publicity resulting from their absence. Usually they are right. Why risk an on-air mistake being repeatedly replayed when you have a comfortable lead? Why set yourself up to be the punching bag for candidates who have nowhere to go but up?

There's just that little matter of submitting yourself to the people and discussing your record of representation. Is there a better way to accomplish that mandate than going into the arena and taking on all challengers?

The Obama campaign is releasing the candidate's first TV ad since clinching the Democratic nomination. Follow the Obama TV ad money as it goes to Georgia and Virginia and North Carolina among other states. It's a clear indication of competitive possibilities as seen by the campaign.

Sen. Obama is following another campaign maxim of defining yourself, if you have the money, before your opponent defines you for voters. The Obama campaign has a big fundraising advantage and the lead will almost certainly continue now that Sen. Obama has decided to bypass the public financing system. His ability to raise money is unmatched.

Sen. McCain has indicated he'll take the public money and its spending limits. But his campaign will be aided by the Republican National Committee, which has more dollars in the bank than the Democratic National Committee.

Georgia remained steadfast as a Democratic state while neighbors went to the Republican column. But since the GOP train came down the track in 2002, the state has been firmly Republican. And Georgia hasn't gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrrowly won in 1992.

New results from a Rasmussen Reports survey demonstrate continued Republican dominance here. John McCain holds a big lead over Barack Obama. Saxby Chambliss is a heavy favorite against all Democratic challengers. Sonny Perdue is still highly regarded as governor.

But... consider the turnout for Barack Obama in Georgia and elsewhere in the South. Consider the Obama campaign organization and fundraising prowess. Consider John McCain's own stated belief a few months ago that Georgia would be competitive.

I talked to Bob Barr about his plans after winning the Libertarian presidential nomination. The former Georgia congressman will run an Atlanta-based campaign managed by Russell Verney, who was with Ross Perot in 1992. The nominee says he's confident of getting on the ballot in at least 48 states.

He's got other big priorities, including fundraising and press coverage. On the money front, the candidate says he hopes to raise $40 million by election day. Maintaining national media attention will be a challenge. Mr. Barr needs to move his poll numbers northward, but that's a difficult proposition without substantial press coverage.

We cited a Rasmussen Reports poll that gave the former Republican 6 percent support nationally. An InsiderAdvantage poll pegged him at 8 percent in Georgia. He could make the Georgia race interesting. Much to the surprise of many, John McCain himself earlier said Georgia would be competitive. We'll see.

Sen. John McCain is to be in the company of potential running mates this weekend, namely governors Charlie Crist of Florida and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, along with former presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The two southern governors and Mr. Romney may be the recipients of a gesture that has more to do with outreach than serious vetting. But the southern nod is indicative of the region's continuing importance to Republican chances.

Other potential GOP contenders are said to include Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and former congressman Rob Portman. While he does not appear on any short veep lists, Gov. Sonny Perdue of Georgia may be a possibility for high-ranking Washington work if Republicans can come up with a way to retain the White House. Gov. Perdue has received good marks for management skills as he moves through his second and last term.

What if, by chance, Gov, Perdue left office early? The keys to the governor's mansion would go to Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, a likely candidate for the office in 2010. Currently, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is the only announced candidate for the Republican governor's nomination. But, with the announced intention of Sen. Johnny Isakson to run for a second term in Washington, the Republican governor's race is wide open.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split primary victories, but she emerges with diminished prospects. Sen. Obama gets a substantial win in North Carolina, demonstrating strength following long days of adversity.

Sen. Clinton gets a win in Indiana but not a big victory.

Sen. Clinton will have a tough time raising money and convincing uncommitted Democratic superdelegates to move to her column. Georgia superdelegates are lined up as follows: Obama-7; Clinton-3; Uncommitted-3.

Georgia superdelegate and Obama supporter Mary Long told me, "Every superdelegate has a right to make a decision about which candidate they want." But, she added, "I want them to settle it soon." Georgia superdelegate Lonnie Plott, a Clinton supporter, said his committment would not change unless the candidate released her delegates.

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright appears to be reveling in his return to the spotlight. His demeanor and words at the National Press Club were fiercely non-apologetic. He defended and repeated past comments.

All that is perfectly legitimate as a personal decision for the pastor who took a fierce pounding in the press. But it couldn't come at a worse time for the politician who endured a firestorm over Rev. Wright's sermon excerpts.

New fuel is being poured on the fire just as Sen. Obama faces voters in North Carolina and Indiana.

Rough patches are par for the course in presidential campaigns. Sen. Obama is struggling through a particularly difficult cycle at the precise moment he should be demonstrating the capacity to seize the Democratic nomination.

Democratic superdelegate Michael Thurmond told me that Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania victory makes a combination with Barack Obama inevitable on the Democratic ticket this fall. The assessment from Georgia's Labor Commissioner and Clinton supporter comes as the Democratic candidates move toward May 6 primary votes in North Carolina, where Sen. Obama has a comfortable lead, and Indiana, where the contest is very close.

Kirk Dornbush, a Southern fundraising co-chair for the Obama campaign, said the talk was "premature," with more primary contests to come. Assuming one would agree to the second spot with the other, the matchup would answer superdelegate prayers of avoiding a make-or-break decision at the Democratic National Convention.

No one would like such a settlement more than Mike Thurmond. The commissioner told me he owes his political career to crucial support from the Clintons in the 1990s. He has remained loyal despite enormous pressure to move his support to the Obama column. Mr. Thurmond has reserved the right to change his convention vote if warranted by circumstances.

 His name has been mentioned repeatedly through the years, including this year, as a presidential-level prospect. Now former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn is in the political headlines again, this time providing an endorsment of Barack Obama.

With his Southern Democrat credentials and national security heft, Nunn enters the Obama column at a critical moment. Following Pennsylvania, the protracted Democratic primary season will take another Southern swing. North Carolina (with 115 delegates) votes on May 6. After absorbing some tough blows, the Obama campaign can claim the backing of an important conservative figure in the party.

Nunn retired from the Senate in 1996 after four terms. He and former Oklahoma Senator David Boren say they will become advisers to the Obama campaign. Look for Sam Nunn to play an important role if Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.

The 2008 election is looming large for most of us, but 2010 is the important election year for some top Georgia politicians. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine says he will file papers soon to raise money for the 2010 governor's race. He is the first to make an on-the-record statement of his intentions.

Many others may follow Commissioner Oxendine. Their decisions are expected to hinge on signals from Sen. Johnny Isakson. An Isakson candidacy would dominate the Republican field. Other hopefuls would likely feel obliged to put their dreams of the governor's office on ice.

But another door would open. An available Senate seat would attract a long list of potential candidates. Either way, the state political landscape will remain interesting terrain long after 2008.

Here in the new media age many of us in the media always remind ourselves that wearing a microphone can be dangerous. Opportunities have grown exponentially for inappropriate or otherwise unwise comments to enter the public realm. And many more people are recording at events public and private.

The lesson should not be lost on politicians either, certainly those who are running for high office. Just because an event was "off the record" or "closed" doesn't mean a verbal mistake will be protected from wide dissemination before a national audience that includes the voters of Pennsylvania.

Sen. Barack Obama has been reminded of this fact as he deals with the tempest surrounding his comments at a closed San Francisco fundraiser referring to the bitterness of economically distressed voters in small towns. His words were "elitist and divisive," said Sen. Hillary Clinton, who is leaping through the door opened by her opponent as the Pennsylvania primary approaches on April 22.

Sen. Obama later called the outcry a "political flare-up" and said he was talking about a "whole bunch of folks" who "feel like they have been left behind. They feel like nobody is paying attention to what they're going through." The impact of the "flare-up" will be debated for some time. One certain result will be the use of more careful verbiage even when among "friends."

After a heated round of rhetoric, Georgia's three top Republicans offered diplomatic language under the Gold Dome. Gov. Sonny Perdue, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and House Speaker Glenn Richardson appeared together in the governor's office. They were polite. But their body language spoke volumes. There was no back slapping. They stood as far apart as possible while remaining in camera range. One did not gaze upon the other.

The 2008 legislative session ended days earlier with Messrs. Cagle and Richardson trading harsh words over the failure of tax cut legislation. Richardson urged Cagle to "be a man" and called for his ouster. The lieutenant governor suggested the speaker had been "blinded by ego."

Gov. Perdue, who was in China when the session ended bitterly, urged all concerned to carry themselves "with dignity." The governor contended that media reporting on differences among the big three had eclipsed tangible legislative accomplishments. He signed three bills dealing with hospital rules and education and transportation funding.

He noted that the approved legislation had been in the work for years, and characterized the tax cut proposals as hastily assembled. And with fresh indications of big financial disarray at the state transportation department, the governor said the failure of a measure allowing local sales tax increases for transportation improvements was a good thing. "I think the best outcome happened for Georgia," he said.

All acknowledge that two big issues remain among others. Election-year traffic gridlock is chewing up an increasing amount of voters' time. And the state's struggling trauma care network still has no permanent source of funding.

Tax relief was the talk of the 2008 General Assembly session. Republican leaders at the Capitol talked and cajoled and threatened over the issue. The speaker had a "GREAT Plan" to eliminate property taxes. In the end, nothing came of it. The ill will that marked the conclusion of the 2007 legislative session was repeated. If anything, the words were hotter. Last year, Speaker Glenn Richardson said Gov. Perdue had displayed his "backside." This year, Richardson said, "... we're sick of Casey Cagle. It's time to get a new lieutenant governor."

Gov. Perdue went to China for a trade mission during the session's final week. Rumors were flying that he would return earlier than planned for the session's conclusion. He did not. Why hurry back to appear at a train wreck? The governor weighed in with a statement, praising the fiscal responsibility of the lieutenant governor and state senators. In his own statement, Lt. Gov. Cagle lamented that tax relief had been stymied by those who "were blinded by ego."

 Left by the wayside were measures to allow local option sales taxes for transportation improvements and create a permanent funding source for the state's trauma care network. Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson neatly summed things up: "We could have done better."

The leaders of the Georgia General Assembly have acknowledged that money must be allocated for trauma care. The House and Senate have now approved a budget that includes $58.5 million for the state's trauma network. Key players know more dollars will be needed. But how will they generate all that money?

The proposed answer is a $10 vehicle registration fee for trauma care funding. But that plan is linked to House legislation calling for elimination of the property tax on personal vehicles. The Senate has a competing proposal to reduce income taxes and wants the $10 vehicle fee to become stand-alone legislation.

Gov. Perdue's opposition to both tax proposals further complicates the outcome. What if the legislative train goes off the tracks during the session's final days? Will trauma care funding be lost? Senate President Pro Tempore Eric Johnson told me he's confident that the trauma issue will be addressed.

Legislators walked away from trauma funding last year. The timing of action to create a reliable financial stream for trauma care remains in question this year.

The 11th Circuit Appeals Court of Appeals was open for business in the heart of storm-scarred Downtown Atlanta. A three-judge panel listened in a creaky courtroom as lawyers argued in the case of a Democratic Party activist who filed suit against the Democratic National Committee. Vic DiMaio says he's still upset with the national party's decision to strip Florida of its delegates. The state violated DNC rules by leapfrogging its primary to Jan. 29.

"My vote doesn't count for anything," said Mr. DiMaio, after his lawyer argued that the DNC decision is unconstitutional. The judges appeared skeptical about some of his claims. But one jurist also asked the DNC attorney just how far the national party could go with its rules on scheduling state primaries.

A court ruling will come later and could rock the Democratic presidential race. Or maybe not. Some of us have seen this before. Eight years ago, the 11th Circuit played a role in disputed Florida voting. The U.S. Supreme Court eventuallly decided the case, and George W. Bush went to the White House. Dedicated reporters, including yours truly, logged long, cold hours on the Appeals Court sidewalk, waiting for rulings. If it comes to that this time, at least we'll be on the sidewalk during springtime in Atlanta.

By the way, Vic DiMaio said he voted for John Edwards in the Florida Primary and is now neutral.