Paul_Yates's Blog

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split primary victories, but she emerges with diminished prospects. Sen. Obama gets a substantial win in North Carolina, demonstrating strength following long days of adversity.

Sen. Clinton gets a win in Indiana but not a big victory.

Sen. Clinton will have a tough time raising money and convincing uncommitted Democratic superdelegates to move to her column. Georgia superdelegates are lined up as follows: Obama-7; Clinton-3; Uncommitted-3.

Georgia superdelegate and Obama supporter Mary Long told me, "Every superdelegate has a right to make a decision about which candidate they want." But, she added, "I want them to settle it soon." Georgia superdelegate Lonnie Plott, a Clinton supporter, said his committment would not change unless the candidate released her delegates.

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright appears to be reveling in his return to the spotlight. His demeanor and words at the National Press Club were fiercely non-apologetic. He defended and repeated past comments.

All that is perfectly legitimate as a personal decision for the pastor who took a fierce pounding in the press. But it couldn't come at a worse time for the politician who endured a firestorm over Rev. Wright's sermon excerpts.

New fuel is being poured on the fire just as Sen. Obama faces voters in North Carolina and Indiana.

Rough patches are par for the course in presidential campaigns. Sen. Obama is struggling through a particularly difficult cycle at the precise moment he should be demonstrating the capacity to seize the Democratic nomination.

Democratic superdelegate Michael Thurmond told me that Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania victory makes a combination with Barack Obama inevitable on the Democratic ticket this fall. The assessment from Georgia's Labor Commissioner and Clinton supporter comes as the Democratic candidates move toward May 6 primary votes in North Carolina, where Sen. Obama has a comfortable lead, and Indiana, where the contest is very close.

Kirk Dornbush, a Southern fundraising co-chair for the Obama campaign, said the talk was "premature," with more primary contests to come. Assuming one would agree to the second spot with the other, the matchup would answer superdelegate prayers of avoiding a make-or-break decision at the Democratic National Convention.

No one would like such a settlement more than Mike Thurmond. The commissioner told me he owes his political career to crucial support from the Clintons in the 1990s. He has remained loyal despite enormous pressure to move his support to the Obama column. Mr. Thurmond has reserved the right to change his convention vote if warranted by circumstances.

 His name has been mentioned repeatedly through the years, including this year, as a presidential-level prospect. Now former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn is in the political headlines again, this time providing an endorsment of Barack Obama.

With his Southern Democrat credentials and national security heft, Nunn enters the Obama column at a critical moment. Following Pennsylvania, the protracted Democratic primary season will take another Southern swing. North Carolina (with 115 delegates) votes on May 6. After absorbing some tough blows, the Obama campaign can claim the backing of an important conservative figure in the party.

Nunn retired from the Senate in 1996 after four terms. He and former Oklahoma Senator David Boren say they will become advisers to the Obama campaign. Look for Sam Nunn to play an important role if Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.

The 2008 election is looming large for most of us, but 2010 is the important election year for some top Georgia politicians. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine says he will file papers soon to raise money for the 2010 governor's race. He is the first to make an on-the-record statement of his intentions.

Many others may follow Commissioner Oxendine. Their decisions are expected to hinge on signals from Sen. Johnny Isakson. An Isakson candidacy would dominate the Republican field. Other hopefuls would likely feel obliged to put their dreams of the governor's office on ice.

But another door would open. An available Senate seat would attract a long list of potential candidates. Either way, the state political landscape will remain interesting terrain long after 2008.

Here in the new media age many of us in the media always remind ourselves that wearing a microphone can be dangerous. Opportunities have grown exponentially for inappropriate or otherwise unwise comments to enter the public realm. And many more people are recording at events public and private.

The lesson should not be lost on politicians either, certainly those who are running for high office. Just because an event was "off the record" or "closed" doesn't mean a verbal mistake will be protected from wide dissemination before a national audience that includes the voters of Pennsylvania.

Sen. Barack Obama has been reminded of this fact as he deals with the tempest surrounding his comments at a closed San Francisco fundraiser referring to the bitterness of economically distressed voters in small towns. His words were "elitist and divisive," said Sen. Hillary Clinton, who is leaping through the door opened by her opponent as the Pennsylvania primary approaches on April 22.

Sen. Obama later called the outcry a "political flare-up" and said he was talking about a "whole bunch of folks" who "feel like they have been left behind. They feel like nobody is paying attention to what they're going through." The impact of the "flare-up" will be debated for some time. One certain result will be the use of more careful verbiage even when among "friends."

After a heated round of rhetoric, Georgia's three top Republicans offered diplomatic language under the Gold Dome. Gov. Sonny Perdue, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and House Speaker Glenn Richardson appeared together in the governor's office. They were polite. But their body language spoke volumes. There was no back slapping. They stood as far apart as possible while remaining in camera range. One did not gaze upon the other.

The 2008 legislative session ended days earlier with Messrs. Cagle and Richardson trading harsh words over the failure of tax cut legislation. Richardson urged Cagle to "be a man" and called for his ouster. The lieutenant governor suggested the speaker had been "blinded by ego."

Gov. Perdue, who was in China when the session ended bitterly, urged all concerned to carry themselves "with dignity." The governor contended that media reporting on differences among the big three had eclipsed tangible legislative accomplishments. He signed three bills dealing with hospital rules and education and transportation funding.

He noted that the approved legislation had been in the work for years, and characterized the tax cut proposals as hastily assembled. And with fresh indications of big financial disarray at the state transportation department, the governor said the failure of a measure allowing local sales tax increases for transportation improvements was a good thing. "I think the best outcome happened for Georgia," he said.

All acknowledge that two big issues remain among others. Election-year traffic gridlock is chewing up an increasing amount of voters' time. And the state's struggling trauma care network still has no permanent source of funding.

Tax relief was the talk of the 2008 General Assembly session. Republican leaders at the Capitol talked and cajoled and threatened over the issue. The speaker had a "GREAT Plan" to eliminate property taxes. In the end, nothing came of it. The ill will that marked the conclusion of the 2007 legislative session was repeated. If anything, the words were hotter. Last year, Speaker Glenn Richardson said Gov. Perdue had displayed his "backside." This year, Richardson said, "... we're sick of Casey Cagle. It's time to get a new lieutenant governor."

Gov. Perdue went to China for a trade mission during the session's final week. Rumors were flying that he would return earlier than planned for the session's conclusion. He did not. Why hurry back to appear at a train wreck? The governor weighed in with a statement, praising the fiscal responsibility of the lieutenant governor and state senators. In his own statement, Lt. Gov. Cagle lamented that tax relief had been stymied by those who "were blinded by ego."

 Left by the wayside were measures to allow local option sales taxes for transportation improvements and create a permanent funding source for the state's trauma care network. Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson neatly summed things up: "We could have done better."

The Georgia General Assembly enters the final days of this year's session with outcomes still to be decided on the key issues of tax cuts and trauma care and transportation improvements. This legislative deadline-crashing now occurs under Republican leaders who watched decades of Democratic feuding. Georgia GOP leaders have shown they know how to fight pitched battles against each other as well.

After a heated conclusion to last year's gathering, legislators face the election-year challenge of reconciling competing tax cuts. Will the car tag tax be eliminated as the House wants? Will the state's income tax be reduced as the Senate has proposed? What will be the impact of Gov. Perdue opposition to both tax cut proposals during the economic downturn?

The governor also has clearly demonstrated his opposition to Sunday package sales of alcoholic beverages. Sunday sales advocates must decide whether to make a last-ditch attempt to win approval for the measure anyway.

As for the governor, he will spend the scheduled final week of this year's legislative session in China. Delta took him there for a trade mission on the airline's inaugural direct flight to Shanghai. It may or may not have been a good time to get out of town.

The leaders of the Georgia General Assembly have acknowledged that money must be allocated for trauma care. The House and Senate have now approved a budget that includes $58.5 million for the state's trauma network. Key players know more dollars will be needed. But how will they generate all that money?

The proposed answer is a $10 vehicle registration fee for trauma care funding. But that plan is linked to House legislation calling for elimination of the property tax on personal vehicles. The Senate has a competing proposal to reduce income taxes and wants the $10 vehicle fee to become stand-alone legislation.

Gov. Perdue's opposition to both tax proposals further complicates the outcome. What if the legislative train goes off the tracks during the session's final days? Will trauma care funding be lost? Senate President Pro Tempore Eric Johnson told me he's confident that the trauma issue will be addressed.

Legislators walked away from trauma funding last year. The timing of action to create a reliable financial stream for trauma care remains in question this year.

The 11th Circuit Appeals Court of Appeals was open for business in the heart of storm-scarred Downtown Atlanta. A three-judge panel listened in a creaky courtroom as lawyers argued in the case of a Democratic Party activist who filed suit against the Democratic National Committee. Vic DiMaio says he's still upset with the national party's decision to strip Florida of its delegates. The state violated DNC rules by leapfrogging its primary to Jan. 29.

"My vote doesn't count for anything," said Mr. DiMaio, after his lawyer argued that the DNC decision is unconstitutional. The judges appeared skeptical about some of his claims. But one jurist also asked the DNC attorney just how far the national party could go with its rules on scheduling state primaries.

A court ruling will come later and could rock the Democratic presidential race. Or maybe not. Some of us have seen this before. Eight years ago, the 11th Circuit played a role in disputed Florida voting. The U.S. Supreme Court eventuallly decided the case, and George W. Bush went to the White House. Dedicated reporters, including yours truly, logged long, cold hours on the Appeals Court sidewalk, waiting for rulings. If it comes to that this time, at least we'll be on the sidewalk during springtime in Atlanta.

By the way, Vic DiMaio said he voted for John Edwards in the Florida Primary and is now neutral.

Supporters of Sunday sales are pressing ahead with their strategy to win an election-year decision in the Georgia General Assembly. Their vehicle is a popular Senate bill allowing beer sales during Sunday games at the planned Gwinnett County ballpark for the minor league Braves team.

The Sunday sales proposal would allow local community votes on permitting Sunday alcohol sales by grocery and convenience stores. The bill has been going nowhere in the Senate. Now it's been attached to the ballpark bill by a House committee.

Assuming the full House gives the go-ahead, questions will have to be answered. Will the Senate agree to Sunday sales in order to protect the ballpark bill? If so, will Gov. Perdue sign the combined bill? He has previously hinted at a veto of Sunday sales legislation. Church leaders are opposed. But polls have consistently shown widespread public support for Sunday sales. And the ballpark bill has powerful backing in an important Republican area.

Sen. John McCain surprised some people by labeling Georgia as "competitive in the general election." McCain cited the state's "dynamic growth" and "new population from all over America." He added, "I'll be coming back to this great state."

Georgia has been reliably Republican in recent years. Bill Clinton was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state back in 1992. It is true that Democrats have scored impressive voter turnout numbers during the primaries. Those gains have included Georgia and other red states.

I interviewed McCain along with two other Atlanta television reporters. Each of us had five-minute sessions with him on-camera. It was the second time we've had direct access to the candidate in a little more than a month. McCain is very good in those situations. He is relaxed, yet direct, and that's also the case in his "town hall" sessions. His traveling press secretary, Brooke Buchanan, acts as the enforcer, closely monitoring reporters who forget to stop asking questions.

McCain's steady march of public appearances and interviews since clinching the Republican nomination are a strong signal that the candidate's immediate goals include more than fundraising, although that's vital for him. McCain must also avoid dropping off the news cycle radar as the Democrats battle on.

After avoiding the endorsement game for months, Gov. Sonny Perdue stepped up to the microphone for Sen. John McCain. Speaking in Washington, the governor said it was time to remove the "presumptive label" in describing Sen. McCain as the Republican nominee.

The Arizona senator's status at this moment is remarkable on a number levels. It's a testament to tenacity and good luck. And, by the way, it provides strong evidence that friendly relations with the media make a big difference.

I got a taste of the McCain style during a brief journey aboard his campaign bus, the Straight Talk Express, just before the Super Tuesday primaries last month. Elbow-to-elbow with local reporters, the senator took one-on-one questions guaranteed to be featured prominently on the evening news. Such encounters are standard operating procedure on the campaign trail. But the degree of access and repartee as practiced on the Straight Talk is a significant departure from other, tightly-scripted campaigns.

Bantering with the press may not an essential ingredient to political success. But it is an ingredient.

His office said the first press report of his switch was "inaccurate." Turns out, a week later, it was accurate. Georgia Congressman John Lewis, who endorsed Hillary Clinton with great fanfare back in October, finally moved to the Barack Obama column with less fanfare.

Civil rights lion Joseph Lowery told me the switch showed one thing clearly. "John can count," said Rev. Lowery. The three-to-one margin for Obama in the 5th Congressional District added up to tremendous pressure for a defection from the Clinton camp.

While he is still revered, and his seat is not believed to be in jeopardy, Congressman Lewis now enters a period of fence repair back home.  Four decades after becoming an integral figure in the civil rights movement, the Congressman faces disappointed constituents who think he missed another movement.