Cindy_Fitzgibbon's Blog

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You know that here at FOX25 we're in the business of making five-day forecasts, not five-month forecasts. If you're looking for seasonal outlooks, there are, of course, meteorologists who specialize in making long range forecasts. One of those agencies is our government, The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, and they update these forecasts on a monthly basis.

The official winter outlook from the CPC is calling for ABOVE normal temps and normal precipitation here in the Northeast and across much of the country for Dec., Jan. and Feb. Here's a link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long
_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

Another group of scientists known for their long range predictions is, of course, the Farmers Almanac. They have just come out with their winter forecast and are calling for BELOW average temps across a good part of the country and lots of snow from the Midwest to the Northeast, especially in February. Here is a link to their forecast:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather
/a/could-this-winters-weather-add-to-economic-woes<
/p>

The almanac cited here is not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac (which is 26 years older). The Old Farmers Almanac claims to use a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon. Here is a link: http://www.almanac.com.

What do I think? Well, as I mentioned in a blog in the past week or so, there does continue to be a larger than normal build-up of cold air and ice in the arctic, and that, combined with lingering La Nina to neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions, may contribute to a colder and snowier winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

-Cindy

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Either way.... chances are if you've had a garden this year (or are enjoying the harvest from local farmers) you've got some tomatoes.  I'm always looking for new ways to enjoy them... so please share some of your recipes.

Here are a couple of simple ones

Tasty Tomatoes and Basil:
Tomatoes with sliced mozzarella drizzled with olive oil, balsamic vinegar and basil.  Sprinkle some fresh cracked paper and enjoy!

Simple Salsa with Fresh Tomatoes:

- 2 to 3 large tomatoes (peel and seed)
- a garlic clove (peeled)
- chopped green onions
- 4oz can of chopped green chilies
- chopped fresh cilantro
- chopped fresh parsley
- 1-2 tsp olive oil
- 1-2 tsp lime juice
- 1/4 to 1/2 cup of water
- salt & pepper
* add some jalapeno pepper if you like some kick*


Also... we didn't have time to cover this in this weeks segment of  'Get Your Garden On'... but we planted an interesting herb in my window box that might be new to you.  It's a scented geranium and can be used to flavor all sorts of thing, they have a strong scent and can even be used to keep bugs away.  Here's a link to learn more.

http://www.gardensablaze.com/HerbScentedGeranium.htm

-Cindy

 

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Hello! Sorry I haven't blogged in a while. The learning curve with our new weather graphics system has been a sharp one for me!

So, pretty much everyone I've talked to is FRUSTRATED with our cool, wet summer- and now quite a number of people have been wondering what it means for this winter. I, in fact, just got another e-mail about it this morning. So I thought I would share my response with you in case you've been wondering, too. Here's my response to Chuck from Templeton's question about what our summer weather will mean for this coming winter.

Hi Chuck,

You're not the first one to ask this question! The short answer is: nothing. I've been trying to find a correlation between wet summers and bad winters in New England and can't seem to find one. None of our snowiest winters seem to correspond to our wettest summers from what I've seen so far.

If the pattern we've been in (persistent trough in the jet stream over the Northeast) doesn't change, then sure, we'll have a colder and wetter conditions hanging on, too, but there are no signs pointing to that right now.

There does, however, seem to be a larger than normal build up of cold air and ice in the arctic, and that, combined with lingering La Nina to neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions, may contribute to a colder and snowier winter. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The official winter outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is calling for ABOVE normal temps and normal precipitation here in the Northeast for Dec Jan and Feb. Here's a link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/lon
g_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

In the meantime, SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET. The jet stream looks to get 'unstuck' and change in the next 5-10 days, bringing us more seasonable weather.

August is making a comeback.

Take Care!

Cindy F.

If you have toddlers... have had toddlers... know toddlers... or have seen toddlers in action than you know what I'm talking about. 
Where there are toddlers... there are tantrums.  At least at some point anyway. 

As the Mom of a soon to be 3yr old... I know all about it.  Funny how before you have kids you stare at these 'meltdowns in progress' in horror thinking "my kid will never do that".  Then... somehow one day you become that person others are staring at.

On Wednesday, July 23rd the author of a new book I Brake For Meltdowns will be here in studio to offer advice on how to handle these 'challenging moments' 2-5yr olds can bring at times.  What to do when toddlers talk back... scream in public... won't eat... won't share etc.   

If you've 'been there- done that'...  I'd love to hear your stories.  I'll be sharing some too and looking for some new ways to handle tough toddler situations.  So send in your stories... send in your questions and I'll get on as many as I can.

Thanks!
Cindy

 

 

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Morning All...

What a treat weather-wise here today with sunshine... low humidity and temps in the 70s... a refreshing change from the 90s and oppressive humidity levels from earlier this week.

While we enjoy this spectacular weather... folks in the midwest will be cleaning up from yet another tornado outbreak. 52 more tornadoes just yesterday- according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. You probably heard one of those tornadoes destroyed a boy scout camp in Iowa killing at least 4 people and injuring more than 40 others. Pulls at your heart strings doesn't it.

It has been a record season for tornadoes in the US and the second deadliest in recent history since Doppler Radar has been in use. Already, more than 100 people have died this year from tornadoes... and the average for an entire year is 62. As far as the number of storms... just in the first five months of the year (Jan thru May) more than 900 tornadoes have been reported. The old record for this same time period was 778 set back in 1999.

The bulk of the severe weather has been across the midwest, the plains and the south, with many individual states setting records for the number of tornadoes as well.

So... with all this increased activity... you might be wondering what it means for us. In the short term... the answer is- nothing. Atmospheric conditions have to be set up just right for tornadoes to form. We've seen that set up frequently this year in the areas that have been hit hard and the weather patterns have been persistent.

Typically in Massachusetts we average 3 tornadoes per year with the highest probability of occurrence in the months of July and August. We are just past the anniversary though of the deadliest tornado to ever hit the state- the Worcester tornado from June 9, 1953 which killed more than 90 people.

So even though it doesn't happen a lot... tornadoes can... do... and will happen here. That means when thunderstorms turn severe (like some of us saw Tuesday night) take them seriously.

In the meantime... enjoy the beauty of a day we've got working out there today!

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Morning All-

Welcome to June... (I know, I know it started yesterday... but it was Sunday and I wasn't here)! June is one of my favorite months- it's the month I was married, my Mother's birthday is in June, and the weather can be spectacular- we usually shake the spring chill (finally) and typically don't get the persistent heat and humidity of July/August.

June 1st marks the beginning of meteorological summer (June/July/August)... and it also marks the beginning of the 2008 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Over the weekend the first named storm of the season- Arthur formed. It developed near the coast of Belize and quickly moved over land bring very heavy rainfall to southeastern Mexico. Even though the storm is falling apart over land now- they will still see some lingering heavier rains there through Tuesday.

If you are curious as to the list of storm names for 2008 here's a look- in fact the names have already been decided through 2013:

2008

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

2009

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

2010

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

2011

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
VinceWhitney

2012

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

2013

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Did your name make the list? 'Cindy' makes an appearance again in 2011. I say again because it's not the first time- you may have noticed that we've had some of these names before. In fact, all of these names will be recycled unless a storm is so severe that the name is retired. Names like Andrew, Katrina, Donna, Camille, Bob etc. will never be used again because they were given to a particular storm that was so devastating that they will forever be associated with that storm. For more information on storm names and how they are decided- check out this link to the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Happy June!
-Cindy

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I did in my yard... and they did a lot of damage to our lawn last summer. If you have big brown patches in your lawn- chances are you had them too!

We're starting up our 'Get Your Garden On' segments again and we started in the yard- fixing up the lawn and the shrubs before we get back in the garden next week. We learn about those nasty little grubs that wrecked my yard and how and when to treat them.

*Important Tip: If you treated them already than you may have to do it again!! (Looks like we have to). Turns out the best time to treat them is June and July according to the knowledgeable folks at Russell's Garden Center in Wayland.

To learn more check out this segment by clicking here.

Finally... It's time to dig in the dirt again!
We start planting next week- so check back.

Have you noticed that as New Englanders we like to complain about the weather... well, for a change there really isn't a whole lot to complain about!

It's been beautiful for several consecutive days with lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures.  Pretty nice stuff for April.  Granted it's dry... last rain in Boston about 10 days ago on April 12th... we could use a little rain to ease the high fire danger and to ease the high tree pollen count.  That though is not my complaint.

If you are like me... then you've been taking advantage of this nice weather out in the yard doing some gardening landscaping etc. 
Well this leads to my complaint:  This fine weather is bad for my eyes. 
Somehow... on Saturday while out in the yard I managed to get some dirt in my eye and wound up with a pretty nasty scratched cornea.  I didn't get this diagnosis until Sunday morning though in the emergency room after waking up with my eye swollen shut.   So from now on... sunglasses on while gardening... no matter the weather.

Have you ever had a scratched cornea?  It's not much fun... I'd love to hear your story. 

Thanks to A.J. for filling in yesterday morning and working a REALLY long day.

Really... it's not.  If it seems like every weekend as of late we've been dealing with some stormy weather... you're right. 

I went back and checked weather data from all the Saturdays since March 1st for Boston and could find only ONE without any measurable rain or snow. 

March 1st   0.24" (1" of snow)
March 8th  1.88"
March 15th  0.03" (Trace of snow)
March 22nd  None
March 29th Trace of rain (Trace of snow)
April 5th 0.06"

I think this stinks... you?  Hoping we can snap out of this pattern as we get deeper into spring... but it's not happening this weekend.  Another wet Saturday on the way. 

I will pass along my frustration to Mother Nature as usual... but she just never seems to listen.
-Cindy

 

Morning....

"BrooklineRSfan" asked a question about El Nino or La Nina on my last post... so I thought I'd create a separate blog for it here.  Here's what he asked:

Are we currently in a sort of El Nino or La Nina? It seems precip has been above normal for quite a few months, but the temps haven't swayed too far one way or another. Also, I've found the storms to be more frequent, too (resulting in the greater precip totals). It feels like we haven't gone more than 2 quiet days before another storm is upon us, with many Tues/Wed and Fri/Sat storm patterns. Or is this just a case of an active jet stream?

We actually are in a La Nina pattern right now... it started during the second half of 2007 and is expected to continue through at least the spring.  There are signs though just in the past couple of weeks that it is starting to get weaker. 
Here's a link to current SST from the Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJ
O/enso.shtmlically) 
La Ninas typically last 8 months to up to 2 years.   Our active weather pattern as of late does indeed have to do with the jet stream being so close by... which relates to La Nina.

Just a quick synopsis of La Nina/El Nino for those that aren't sure:  These terms refer to Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific.  The full term is ENSO- or the El Nino Southern Oscillation- indicating that the SST oscillate back and forth either side of what is considered 'normal'.  La Nina is when they are colder than average (happens when persistent stronger winds in this region create what's called 'upwelling' or drawing colder water from below to the surface).  El Nino is when SST are warmer than average (happens when the winds relax allowing surface to heat up).  Warmer or colder SST in turn change 'normal' weather patterns in this region (warmer =more storminess- warmer moist air rises, cools, condenses.... colder= less storminess) which in turn can change weather patterns around the globe. 

The past few months have been classic La Nina weather in the U.S. - partcularly with all the flooding in the Ohio Valley region.  For us... La Ninas often bring more precipitation in the colder months with no strong temperature signature.  Indeed, we've had a decent amount of rain (and snow) with temperatures near average (especially in Feb and March).  La Ninas though, seem to have a more pronounced impact on our local weather during the winter months than they do in the spring heading into the summer.  Here's a link to  the climate prediction center with a map showing global impacts for the winter and summer months
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitor
ing/impacts/cold.gif 

The longer range forecast (90 Day Outlook- April, May, June) from the Climate Prediction center also calls for us to have near normal weather conditions during this time period with no significant swings above of below average for temps or precip.  Here's a link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/m
ulti_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif>

So no real obvious clues from La Nina as to what lies ahead this spring.  I can tell you that I see another rain event Fri into Sat with lighter showers possible next Monday/Tue and again Thursday... It looks to remain fairly active for the next 10 days.  Beyond that... I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Have a great day!
Cindy

 

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Are you sad to see it go? I'm not.  I think I've expressed here before how I'm ready for warmer weather so I can get outside (comfortably) with 'my boys'.  An informal poll of the crew here suggests the same feeling.

March was relatively tame this year around these parts.  We can get some decent snow storms in March but managed to escape that this year.  Here's a recap of some of the weather stats of the month according to National Weather Service Climate Data:

March 2008 in Boston averaged slightly cooler and wetter than average... but with less snow than last year.
Average temp: 38.2  (0.6 below avg) 
Monthly Rain: 4.48" (0.76" above avg)
Snow: Only 1" (avg for March is  8.2" and last year we had 10.2"... the snowiest month of a winter that didn't feature much snow in Boston)

March 2008 in Worcester was wetter than average but temperatures were right on target for the month. 
Average temp: 34.1 (considered normal)* 
Monthly Rain: 5.19" (1.10" above avg)
Snow: 7.4 " (avg for March is  about 11" and last year we had 21.4")

*(In case your wondering the first half of the month was warmer than average the second half cooler than average... so when you average them together... you get an 'average' temp for the month)

So what will April bring?  It'll certainly be getting off to warm start tomorrow with highs in the 60s...  Typically by the end of April highs average in the lower 60s... so by then they should be here to stay. 

Enjoy the 'one day visit' Tuesday!
-Cindy

Whenever a question comes along from a viewer that I think might interest you I like to share... so here you go!

Ted from Saugus writes:  

Cindy,

I noticed this morning that when you were showing the satellite shot, the clouds were moving South to North. When you showed the Doppler, the clouds are moving North to south. HOW COME??????

Thank You.

Here's my response:

Morning Ted,
Great observation!  What you noticed is a result of winds blowing in different directions at different heights in the atmosphere.

The storm itself is being steered farther out to see by strong upper level winds blowing from the south and southwest.  When you look at the satellite imagery this morning (showing the clouds) you're seeing the mid and higher level cloud tops being sheared to the north and northeast by those upper level winds.  

When you look at the Doppler radar imagery this morning (showing the precipitation) you're seeing the radar returns dropping from north to south.  This is a function of the low level circulation and a north to northeast surface wind.  

This storm is pretty wound up... we're lucky it's passing far enough out to see for just these fringe effects- or we'd be hearing the sounds of snow blowers instead of birds later this afternoon.
Take care and thanks for writing in!
Cindy F.

 

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So did you see the story our photographer Dan Gardner shot this morning on Crazy Carl’s Cricket Farm in Franklin, NH? They breed millions of crickets there...Click here to check it out.

Normally I'm not a fan of insects or 'bugs' of any kind... but I'm a little partial to these guys. I say 'guys' because it is typically the male crickets rubbing their wings together that make those loud sounds. (They are usually trying to attract a female).

You may have heard this before... but in the sound of crickets there lies a weather connection. The wamer it is the faster they chirp... the cooler it is the slower... and they generally don't chirp at all when it's below 55 degrees fahrenheit.

You can actually approximate the temperature by listening to the chirps of a cricket since the frequency of their chirping varies with the ambient air temperature. If you count the number of chirps in 15 seconds and then add 37... it will give you the temperature in degrees fahrenheit (within a few degrees). I'm not sure if humidty (or more water vapor in the air) has any effect on this. Here is a link for more info if you'd like:

http://entomology.unl.edu/k12/crickets/temperature.
htm

I don't know about you... but I'm ready to start hearing the sound of crickets again! Unfortunately I just don't see it happening in the near future... longer range models are keeping us in a cooler than average pattern until the first of April.

Enjoy those 'chilly' Easter egg hunts again this year!
-Cindy

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Well Hello!

It's been awhile.  Let’s see since I left in December we've had quite an active winter!  I've missed out on forecasting storm... after storm... after storm with heavy rains (we're more than 5" above normal for the year in Boston)... wind (winds gusted to 76mph- hurricane force on the Cape over the weekend) and lots of snow (52" Boston... 68" Worcester and more than 100" - record setting across much of central and northern New England).

Now I'm ready for spring.  Are you?  It's hard to believe with the cold temperatures today that spring is now just 10 days away.  There are signs.  We’re back in Daylight Saving Time, Easter weekend is fast approaching  and we're seeing some river flooding already.  I anticipate there will be more of that on the way in the weeks ahead as all that snow they have in central and northern New England begins to melt.   

I say bring on spring!  I can't wait to get outside with my little ones.  Anyone else have spring fever?

By the way, thanks for the well wishes.  It's good to be back!

Cindy

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I just wanted to take a quick moment to say 'thank you' to all of you that have sent along your best wishes to me and my new little boy who I will get to finally meet on Monday. (That's unless Mother Nature doesn't send me into labor sooner with that Nor'Easter coming up the coast on Sunday!) Be kind to A.J. as he most graciously 'holds down the fort' for me.

See you in early March!
Cindy